Season projections and model ratings
A window into how our statistical model sees the 2026 NFL season — power ratings, division races, playoff paths, and a deep-dive preview for all 32 teams.
These are model projections meant for exploration and context — not betting picks. Numbers reflect what the model expects, and the season is why we play the games.
A model-wide snapshot: projected records, ratings, and the season narrative for all 32 teams at a glance.
Projected order of finish for all eight divisions, with win totals and division-title probabilities.
Each team's modeled probability of reaching the postseason, from division winners to wild cards.
Championship probabilities for every team, driven by thousands of simulated seasons.
Our composite team rating — a single number blending projected offense, defense, and schedule.
How the model rates every offense heading into the season, with the drivers behind each grade.
How the model rates every defense heading into the season, with the drivers behind each grade.
Projected difficulty of each team's slate, ranked by the model's rating of their opponents.
Where the model sees the biggest year-over-year jumps in projected rating, and why.
Teams the model expects to take a step back from last season, flagged by unsustainable signals.
A deep-dive projection page for every team — ratings, outlook, and key numbers, all in one place.